Recovery and Growth in the Manufacturing Sectors of CEE Transition Economies: Short and Long-Term Efficiency Improving Factors

The first aim of the paper was to explain a cross-sector differences in evolution of gross product of Slovenian manufacturing sectors in the period 1992-98 using different short and long-term factors. Results pointed out great importance of initial conditions (sector orientation to convertible or non-convertible markets, and distorted production structure), as well as structural reforms and macroeconomic and institutional environment. Added long-term factors revealed positive association with short term output growth during the transition period – it is obvious that these factors (FDI, exports, imports of inputs, cooperation) create channels for the transfer of technology, improving the efficiency of production. It turned out also that quality improving exports to the EU countries is significantly positively correlated with the sector output performance. The paper further studies the importance of both direct and indirect means of technology transfer for transition countries and its impact on productivity growth of local firms. Using firm-level data for eight transition countries for the period 1994 - 1998 and employing growth accounting approach, the paper explores the importance of FDI, intra-industry knowledge spillovers from FDI, firm's own R&D accumulation and of international R&D spillovers through trade for firm's TFP growth. Time-invariant firmspecific effects are taken into account using panel data techniques, and potential selection bias for foreign investment decisions is corrected by using a generalized Heckman two-step procedure. After controlling for common economic policy influences and industry effects, our results confirm for five advanced transition countries that technology is being transferred to domestic firms primarily through direct foreign linkages. Evidence on some international R&D spillovers through arm-length trade has been found for four transition countries. Our results also suggest that FDI do not generate positive intra-industry spillovers for domestic firms. Moreover, for three transition countries FDI were found to have significant crowding-out effects for local firms in the same industry.

FDI Subsidiaries and Industrial Integration of Central Europe: Conceptual and Empirical Results

productivity gap, transition economies, foreign direct investment, firm-organisation technology transfer, economic catch-up development

The Income Tax Reform in Slovenia: Should the Flat Tax Have Prevailed?

In 2007 Slovenia launched a comprehensive reform of its tax system. This article presents an analysis of several envisaged tax reform scenarios, including the flat tax proposal, with a dynamic general equilibrium model of the Slovenian economy, linked to a microsimulation model. We focus mainly on the macroeconomic and welfare aspects of the proposed scenarios, thus capturing the overall effect on individual taxpayers and the government budget. The main characteristics of the model are presented along with the results of different reform scenarios, including the one that finally passed the parliament and now forms part of Slovenia’s tax system. Our results suggest that options other than the flat tax system are better suited to the country’s long-term economic development.flat tax; general equilibrium model; income inequality; macroeconomic effects; personal income tax; Slovenia; tax reform; welfare analysis

R&D and Economic Growth in Slovenia: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach with Endogenous Growth

In the article, we model R&D as a major endogenous growth element in a small open economy general equilibrium framework and consider several R&D policy scenarios for Slovenia. Increase of the share of sectoral investment in R&D that is deductible from the CIT and increase of government spending on R&D turned out to be the most effective policy measures. While the former policy measure is still in part followed by an undesired dividend increase, the increase of government spending on R&D boosts long-run productivity in the economy, thus increasing the future value of firms, which is reflected in a desire dividend increase. The households that would gain more utility from such policy scenarios are those with more skilled and highly skilled labour, but not the very top earners in the economy.endogenous growth; general equilibrium modelling; R&D; Slovenia

Sustainability of the Slovenian Pension System: An Analysis with an Overlapping-generations General Equilibrium Model

The article presents an analysis of welfare effects in Slovenia, an analysis of macroeconomic effects of the Slovenian pension reform and an analysis of effects of the pension fund deficit on sustainability of Slovenian public finances with a dynamic OLG general equilibrium model. It has been established that while young generations and new generations will lose from the pension reform, even complete implementation of the reform might not be sufficient to compensate unfavourable demographic developments. The level of expected deficit of the PAYG-financed state pension fund seems to be most worrying. Financing the pension system with VAT revenues as an extreme case could result in more sustainable public finances, since GDP and welfare levels ought to increase, yet this might be infeasible to implement politically, given that the generations of voters would have their welfare decreased. In addition, the present pension system is intransparent and tremendously complicated and should primarily be made more comprehensible to the public.general equilibrium models, macroeconomic effects, OLG-GE, PAYG, pension system, sustainability of public finances, Slovenia, welfare analysis